NEW YORK / RankWire.AI / – The U.S. stock bull market has now entered its fifth year on Monday, following four consecutive years of gains. According to Truist analysis, the S&P 500 has increased roughly 119% since its bear-market closing low on October 12, 2022. That session saw the index finish at 3,577.03, marking its weakest close since November 2020. On Friday, the index closed at 7,811.54, representing a 14.1% rise for 2026, with a weekly gain of 1.2%.
This cycle marks the 11th bull market since the 1950s in the historical record and is also the seventh to last at least four years. Its 119% increase falls short of the 184% average gain observed across the studied bull markets. The 2009-to-2020 cycle rose 401%, while the 1987-to-2000 advance reached 582%. These earlier periods are still among the most notable long-term gains compared to recent data.
Historical performance during the fifth year has generally remained positive, although outcomes have varied between cycles. Out of the previous 10 bull markets, six extended beyond their fourth anniversary. For those that reached a fifth year, the average return was 12%, with a median of 15%. Additionally, the historical data shows an average maximum drawdown of about 14% during fifth years. These figures relate to previous market cycles and do not predict the current market’s trajectory.
Corporate Earnings Support Market Growth
A key factor behind the ongoing rally is strong corporate earnings. FactSet reports that third-quarter S&P 500 profits were 29.6% higher than the same period last year as of October 9. This marks the third consecutive quarter with earnings growth exceeding 25%. As of the end of September, the growth estimate was 29.2%. Among 19 companies that have reported results, 84% surpassed analyst expectations, with combined earnings beating estimates by 4.9%.
Analysts project robust profit growth through the end of 2026, with fourth-quarter S&P 500 earnings expected to increase by 27.6% compared to a year earlier. Full-year earnings are anticipated to grow by 32.4%. About 40% of upward revisions to 2026 earnings estimates are attributable to semiconductor and hardware firms. Research from Barclays indicates these companies account for roughly 75% of revisions to 2027 estimates year-to-date, signifying the continued importance of technology-related sectors in earnings adjustments.
Rising Rates Accompany the Market’s Fifth-Year Milestone
The ongoing rally is occurring amid rising interest rates and elevated U.S. government bond yields. The Federal Reserve increased its federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00% on September 16. Officials commented that economic activity was expanding at a solid pace, despite inflation remaining high. Projections released in September forecast median 2026 economic growth at 2.3% and an unemployment rate of 4.1%. The Fed’s next policy meeting is scheduled from October 27 through October 28.
Long-term Treasury yields continue to stay elevated as the stock market advances into its fifth year of gains. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was at 5.24% on October 9, while the 30-year yield reached 5.60%. On that day, the S&P 500 gained 0.6%, closing at 7,811.54. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite increased by 0.6%. U.S. equities are now near record levels in their fifth year, supported by strong earnings growth and higher borrowing costs.